Election 2008

So, Steven still hasn't given me pictures from France, so the update on France is going to have to wait. Instead I am going to talk about my anger at the US media, who for some reason says that Hilary Clinton has no chance of winning this election, unless she wins by large margins. I believe she can win, and that her margins don't have to be that large.

So in order to figure this out, I used CNN's delegate calculator which can be found here. And from playing around with the numbers I have found some interesting results.

The first thing Hilary needs is a big win in Pennsylvania. The big win will do 1 of two things, 1) give her the momentum she needs to finish the race in first, and 2) give her a nice big chunk of the delegate count. Using CNN, I gave her a 61% win in Pennsylvania. If she gets the 61% and then gets a 55% (minnimum) in each of the other states, which should be easy considering that her momentum will be crazy. Then due to her experience and knowledge, she should be able to get around 61% of the superdelegates also. This will give Clinton 2014, Obama 2003. Then add in Florida and Michigan, and Clinton has won the election!

But in realistic terms, Clinton is not projected to get anywhere near the 61% vote needed in Pennsylvania. The latest polls (Feb 27) say she is getting around 49% with Obama at a mere 43%. On February 14 though, Clinton had 52% and Obama had 36%. [Link]. So the latest poll gives Clinton a 6 point lead, and the older poll gives Clinton a 18 point lead. So let's say clinton wins by 10 points. (Those who think she can't win by at least 10 points, look at the following states: Tennessee, Rhode Island, Oklahoma, New Jersey, and Massachussetts to name a few). This will give her some momentum, and she needs to use this momentum very wisely. Because with that small of a win, she needs to secure at least 60% in almost every other state, including the superdelegates to win it. If she doesn't secure the 60% but gets really close, she will again be ahead of Obama by a few points, and so we include Michigan and Florida, and we have a win for Hilary.

Now some key things that I think Hilary needs to do in order to win the votes she needs. I think the main issue is she needs to speak with the people who are voting for her. As an example look at Obama who is using the internet to his EVERY advantage. He has a blog, he is on every different social site, he is talking and corresponding with everyone he can. He replies to emails, joins groups, and basically makes himself seen everywhere. So here are the things that Hilary needs to change and in which Obama is doing better, if Hilary wants to win.

1st thing is to look at Hilary's blog. It looks dry and boring. Barack has a very sexy way of creating his blog. I looked at his blog and went, hot stuff, while looking at Hilary's I said, how boring. Some differences? Each of Hilary's posts have a large rectangular box around it, which helps with the seperation of posts, but looks dull and boring, and very much overdone. Obama on the otherhand does not use boxes and therefore his blog looks more open and inviting. Another point is pictures, people love pictures. Clinton has only pictures of her on her blog. Obama has pictures of him and his supporters. Obama has pictures of just his supporters, and him giving speeches. He gives the audience more basically. Another thing is that Hilary's blog is only connected to Digg, Technorati, and del.ico.us; Obama is connected to: Digg, Facebook, Stumble, Newsvine, and del.ico.us A much better overview.

2nd thing is the number of sites that each one has a personal connection on. Hilary is on: Myspace, Facebook, Youtube, and Flickr (According to her website). I know for a fact she is also on Twitter! Why does she not show that she is on all of these other social networking sites? Obama does! In fact according to Obama's website he is on: Facebook, Myspace, Youtube, Flickr, Digg, Twitter, Eventful, Linkedin, Blackplanet, Faithbase, Eons, Glee, MiGente, MyBatanga, AsianAve, DNC Partybuilder. Hilary, PROMOTE YOURSELF!!!

3rd thing is that joining the sites in part 2 does not give you the votes, being friends with everyone does. I am going to use Twitter as an example. (The following statistics are taken from Twitterholic) There are 22,341 people following Barrack Obama on Twitter. He has added 22,053 as friends. This makes him look like he actually cares about people. Hillary Clinton has 2,848 people following her, while she is friends with only 1. Yes, only 1. Even Bill Clinton is having a greater time on Twitter! Another thing that is different between Hilary and Barack is that when Barack updates he talks about things he is doing. He shows what he stands for by the things that he is participating in. Example: Talked with Communications Workers of America about getting America back to work. Watch my full speech at: http://tinyurl.com/5mmlrv. So simple! He is showing that he is listening to America, that he wants to create more jobs, and also gives a link to his speech! All in under 140 characters!!! Here is Hillary's attempt to do something similar: Today on the Ellen DeGeneres Show I announced a new plan to combat breast cancer. http://tinyurl.com/5opnul. Ok, so she got Ellen, an amazing women, to let her be on her show. Good job. Help fight breast cancer? Ok, you are big on health, but everyone already knows this, talk about new things! And what is your new plan to combat breast cancer? Stab the breasts? It doesn't make sense! At least she provided a link though.

All in all, I think Hilary mainly needs to utilize the internet and make it work for her, and at least compete with Obama on a much greater scale. I think Hillary can do it, but she needs to look like she's putting effort into it.

Politically yours,
-Aram the Garmo


P.S. You know what would be really cool too. A daily podcast that is around 5-15 min about what Hilary is doing/has done and what she stands for. That would be pretty neat.